Capitaland-worth looking?

Genting Hong Kong Elliot Wave 3?

Observations:
-Genting HK's had been trading sideways for the past few weeks.
-Overall look at the chart seemed to indicate that its Wave 3 formation have yet to be fully completed. IF this is so and prices move on to complete Elliot Wave 3, it could mean that prices would easily go past the previous high of US$0.55.
-Px seemed to be forming an ascending triangle look-alike shape with resistance at US$0.475. I would not totally call it an ascending triangle since price fluctuations are not as pronounced as the typical ascending triangle.
-MACD just crossed over to the positive.
-50D MA rising, currently at US$0.445. This could provide support for the price.
-Bollinger band narrow.

Trading Hypothesis:
I expect GHK to break its high of US$0.55 in the meantime. Any close above US$0.48 would be lend further support to this hypothesis, as px break out of the ascending triangle. A target price of US$0.6x might be likely following its completion of Wave 3 formation.

Capital Malls Trust Bullish Reversal Hammer Sighted

Today, CapitalMall Trust formed a bullish reversal hammer, signaling that its downtrend over the past 2 weeks is coming to an end. Prices pulled from its intra-day low of 1.93 to end at 1.99 at the closing bell.

Observations:
-Px formed a hammer during today's session, after rebounding off 150D MA support.
-150D MA has been supporting prices well since the beginning of May last year.
-Hammer candlestick formed alongside exceptionally high volume, giving great significance to the candlestick.
-MACD and stochastics down for quite some time. Likely reversal soon.

Trading hypothesis:
I expect a further uptrend from this point. Next resistance could possibly be at the 50D MA at 2.02, which i expect to take place. A break above 2.02 would be a further bullish trading signal for trader's to take up position in addition to the bullish hammer reversal candlestick we have today.

In short, after doing an evaluation of SebMarine's chart, my observations are as follows

Observations:
-Px still trading insides symmetrical triangle.
-Upper band of triangle to be broken when px hits above 4.00 / 4.01
-MACD close to a crossover to the positive region, and blue line crossing over the red.
-Price broke the 150D MA though fail to close above it.
-Volume increased.

Trading Hypothesis:
I expect that sembmarine to break above its symmetrical triangle soon when price goes above $4.00. Given such a breakout from the stock's symmetrical triangle, we can expect the price to hit around 4.40 in due course. However short term resistance of the price is around $4.14, so traders can expect to liquidate around this price to locked in some profits first.

Alternate hypothesis:
Unless prices make a retreat this coming week back to the $3.8x region, we would unlikely see a breakout below the symmetrical triangle, given the optimisstic conditions in the market currently. Howeve if it does, it is advised that traders cut loss below $3.88.

NOL short term ascending triangle

My thoughts on NOL:
NOL has good fundamentals to begin with. In the midst of consistently improving freight rates and earnings, NOL is on track to better 3Q10 results. However, this has been a laggard in the recent STI run up, though its backed by sound fundamentals. Despite the uncertainty in economic outlook from EU and US, sentiments point towards a improvement in global trade, and this sentiment is likely to soon have positive impact on markets perception of shipping lines. Already Cosco and Yang Zi jiang had already a fantastic run up as compared to NOL.


Technicals:
Recently over the month of September, NOL has been forming a small ascending triangle whereby there are higher lows. This is indicative of a strong buying pressure and if prices do move up from today's low of 1.99, the ascending triangle would be quite sound. Ascending triangles have a definitive upward bias, and i believe there is much room for NOL to go up. On a macro view, NOL is also within a symmetrical triangle. Breaking of the ascending triangle and the symmetrical triangle would be a bullish indicator, and vested investors should hold. Those intending to buy in can wait for the breakout at 2.08 on high volume to ride the trend.

Alternate hypothesis:
I believe it is unlikely that NOL breaks on the lower side of the symmetrical triangle, barring any unforeseen unfavorable news. Traders can set a cut loss at 1.99. With such a tight cut loss point, it will limit the risk but enjoy the potential of a strong run up.

Regards,
F.T.

The Return of the Forune Teller.

Alright i have returned..sorry if I had disappointed anyone by not returning here to give my weekly updates. And since I have returned, I will announce some promises to the readers of my blog, however few there are out there.

Firstly, I intend to make this blog more personal to the readers. I know my previous postings were really to say, formal and monotonous. I welcome any suggestions to improve on the personal touch of this blog. As I will promise, this blog will belong to all my readers. Secondly, I promise to further improve on the quality of my posting, but at the same time retain the simplicity of the message behind it. Readers would realize that every posting would now come with a trading hypothesis, that is which direction I think a stock will take in future, and the trading recommendations and alternative hypothesis, ie. what other possible scenarios would happen. However guys, please do bear in mind that I am also a learning trader/ investor. I am not any professional, but I ll do my best in my analysis!

Lastly, if readers find my posts interesting, I will appreciate it if you guys leave a message on the tag board. It would really make a difference! If you do happen to disagree with any of my opinions, please by all means shout out in the shout box. I always welcome a different voice = )

Happy Trading
F.T.

Noble's Third Wave Up

Three days ago, Noble broke its 6 months upper downtrend line for the first time, and out of the descending triangle formation, giving traders a very bullish signal. This could likely mean an end to the second wave down that has been present since March of the year, and going into the third wave up. The third wave of an Elliot wave pattern is never the shortest, and usually the longest. If this analysis holds true, then this could be actually an opportunity to buy into Noble.

Any break below 1.65 should be noted, as below this price Noble will fall back into the descending triangle, making the previous price upswing a false breakout. Feel free to drop a feedback on my analysis.

SembMarine playing at the 200D MA Support

Sembmarine is currently at the 200D MA support. We should see a bounce off this level in the next few trading sessions if this would to be a strong support level to carry on its ascending triangle pattern.

KeppelLand Outllook

Currently KeppelLand is supported at the 3.85 level (resistance-turned support). Although there appears to be a slight bounce off this price level for the last trading day, if current market sentiments were to bring it below this level, it would likely reach the next support level at 3.60, which is where the 200D MA line and the uptrend line since last year November lies and remains nicely intact, before staging a rebound from there.

NOL sideways movement for the week

For the last week, NOL has been displaying sideways movement in the price range of 1.92 to 1.99. 1.92 has the the historical resistance turned support level for the price of NOL, while that of 1.99 was established when NOL retreated from this price level over the last few days. Volume has been deceasing, and indication that market participation has been declining. A breakout and a subsequent close above 2.00 would be necessary to induce buyers back into the counter to lift sentiments.

NOL: Bullish Deliberation Candlestick Pattern

Over the last 3 days, NOL displayed 3 candlesticks that fulfill most of the criteria of a bullish deliberation candlestick pattern, except for one rule, that is such a pattern should appear after a downtrend. Though a bullish deliberation candlestick pattern is not necessary a bullish reversal pattern, it does indicate to some extent that the downward pressure on the price is weakening. Volume is still high, indicating selling pressure. Currently, price is at 150D MA, and it is fair the expect some consolidation around this price level to occur with declining volume.

Market risk these few days is high. STI looks to be going back to forming its full Head and Shoulders pattern with the past few days of consecutive decline, and quite a few of its component stocks does display signs of bearishness. Coming from US are repeated series of gloomy economic outlooks that put anxiety into market players. If there is no further signs of bulls presence, bears might just take over with the all the renewed uncertainties and concerns of a W-shaped recovery or even a L-shaped recovery or rather, stagnation.

SGX hits the upper price channel

Since august last year, SGX has been trading in a downward price channel. Today SGX touch the upper channel and there is a pullback, indicating that there is strong resistance at the top of the channel. If price is unable to break the top of this channel, there might be further worry and impatience and pulls the price back to the middle of the channel.

The Week before National Day

I shall post some of my observations i have made over the weekend for this post.

First of all i found the ascending triangle pattern for 2 of the stocks SingTel and SembMarine. Though Sembmarine broke out of its symmetrical triangle 3 days ago, there appears to be an ascending triangle it has to break out of before there can be any real confirmation of a bullish signal.



Now for SingTel:



Further Bearishness is also noted for SGX. It will be interesting whether the fundamentals from the release of 2Q10 results on Aug 2 would be able to take this stock out of downtrending channel since last year.



Finally, for the last week, we witness NOL breaking out of its symmetrical triangle. If prices could hold above the upper trend line of the triangle on Monday, it would have meet the 3 day breakout rule, and the target price technically speaking would be around $2.50. This is estimated from measuring the length of the base of the symmetrical triangle and adding this length onto the breakout point which will project the target price to around 2.50. (Click on this link to view more about Symmetical Triangle Breakouts: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle )

Last but not least, we should pay close attention to market risk. If he STI could do a successful close above the pyschological 3000 points, we would be safe to hold on more positions in the market. If it pulls back in the other senario, then we would have to carefully watch out for any further materialisation of the Head and Shoulder's Pattern.

Happy trading and a happy National Day!

OCBC chart has hit a resistance level.

Analysing the chart for OCBC, there is a very noticeable triple top formation, and there appears to be another pullback at the resistance level at the $9.00 mark, a level from where previous price pulls backs were observed on last December and April. At this price level is also OCBC's own price channel formed before May, the month when the price channel was breached.

Bollinger bands are tightening, indicating that a significant price movement is about to occur. Price could be supported at 8.40 level where the 200D MA is at, or further down at the neckline of the triple top formation at 8.00.

NOL in a symmetrical triangle

Over the last few months, NOL prices has formed a symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern and represents a continuation of trend, and if this is the case, for NOL it will be a continuation of its long term uptrend. Symmetrical triangles do on occasions also do results in a reversal as price actually breaks below this triangle. Any close above 2.10 over a maybe say 3 day period could very likely translate into a bullish outbreak for NOL.
The second scenario would be a break below the symmetrical triangle, below 1.87, representing a bearish outbreak. Do take note that on August 2, NOL 2nd quarter results will be out.

It will be interesting to note that similar shipping counters like Yangzijiang and Cosco have been rising since last week, outperforming NOL.

Noble Group Bearish

I am still new to Elliot, but with my understanding, it seems that Noble Group is undergoing the 3rd motive wave downwards. The first motive wave has brought it down to a price of 1.54 before the subsequent corrective wave took it up to a price of 1.92. Now it seems that Noble is into the third wave. As the third wave is never the shortest, but usually the longest, it might be bearish for Noble. Correct me if I am wrong.

We would have to wait for some fundamental reasons to lift market sentiment on this stock, and turn the downtrend around.

Presenting the most popular stock-Genting Singapore

We have come to an interesting junction yet again for genting, when we are up against the historical price resistance of 1.18. Today a graveyard candlestick was observed, which could signal some difficulty in crossing over this price level. However, as a rising tide lift all boats, given bullish market conditions, we might very well see genting breaking out of this resistance, which would give rise to a stronger pulse of rally.

Another Wave of Correction Incoming?

At this point of time, it is sufficient to assume that there arent many positive indicators around to suggest that there might be a turnaround in global market sentiments. In the short term, there does not appear to be any light at the end of the tunnel for the European debt crisis. For one night, the Dow could be up over a hundred points, and then down by another hundred for the next night.

In the worst case senario, we could be witnessing a major correction of the STI of more than 20% this time round. The last time it happened from April 15, it was only about 12.5%.

SGX trading near its support

Recently SGX is trading at its support level around $7.65. The next strong support will be 7.50. Since the August of last year, SGX has never fall below this psychological price level. MACD indicator is also looking to improve for SGX with the recent trading days indicated by green bars and MACD line showing a expected turn for the positive, though like another other stock, SGX is also subjected to the general market risk and volatility in the short term.

The correction on STI continues

We witness a continuation of the correction on global markets and at a point in time, panic selling due to a technical error had caused Wall Street to plummet by 300 over points. Several global issues loomed over the global financial market. We continue to see the problems Europe is encountering. The Greece crisis continues; British faces a hung parliament which is hardly beneficial to the economy at such a point in time. Notable such a similar crisis to that of Greece back in 1997 in Thailand sparked of a contagion and the Asian Financial Crisis. Although the outcome would very likely be less severe, such a possibility would be interesting to keep in mind.

So far for the local market, STI has corrected by around 6%, and there is reason to believe that more downside is to come. Historically when global markets corrected, Singapore market usually undergo corrections of around 10%. It has been 3 weeks, and the time frame for corrections could well possibly go beyond this.

For the week I would like to cover the following stock: NOL.

NOL
NOL has gone through 14.3% drop from its highest closing price of 2.30 to 1.97 as of last week. This is probably a good stock to add into any portfolio. Barring any foreseen circumstances, a recovery in Singapore’s economy is expected by the government with the project GDP growth of 4.5%-6.5%. With our large external economy, trade is expected to pick up benefitting the shipping industry, since transport of goods is done primarily on the waters. Technically there seems to be support at $1.93.

The short term associated risk with investing in this counter in addition to the general market risk would be the 1Q2010 earning performance due 14 May, and the performance of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI).

Other stocks such as Yang Zi Jiang, SembCorp Marine are also good buys to tap into the growth in the shipping sector. Particularly for Yang Zi Jiang, there appears to be great buying interest over the past week.

Rounding Up the Week

It has been a decent week for Genting Singapore, for it has risen a whooping 10.9% within the last 2 trading days in the week from one of its lowest price in the month of April. I believe the reasons is expectations that Genting would be "profitable" as announced in the AGM, with its 1Q2010 results out on 13 May. Any experienced trader would know the term profitable is relative, and if actual numbers do not match expectations, it is going to be pull back Genting's share price. Up ahead, it will be interesting to watch if it could break the strong resistance at 1.04-1.05, and if that happens I believe could retest the 1.20 levels. Personally i think $1.00 is very likely, its just a matter of whether it could sustain at such a price level.

Ok enough said in this blog about Genting. Another interesting stock for the week is CapitalLand. It has fallen by 7.4% from 4.10 to close at 3.76. Such a fall in itself represents a good buying opportunity for the traders who based their strategy on buying on dips. The interesting sign is the doji formed on Friday, representing an equilibrium between the forces of demand and supply. This is a signal that its downtrend is possibly ending. The risk with this stock really comes from the government, whether it will implement further measures to cool the property market.

Correction For STI Next Week

This coming week seems to be a slight correction week, although unlikely to be a major correction as that in January when STI corrected by 8.6%. It could offer buying opportunities for investors who have missed out the recent bull run. A sufficient pullback would offer the market and its inidividual stocks the potential to grow. I would however advise caution and shorter term investing as the year of 2010 would be marred by pullbacks and uncertainty.

I would include commodity stocks and shipping in my portfolio that are closely correlated with the global economic growth. However, this is based on the assumption that global economies do not experience any double dip or any stagnation in growth. At least for Singapore, this seems unlikely with the projected GDP growth of 7%-9%. How global economies is going to tighten their monetary policies would also be an interesting topic to look out for.

Picks next week could include Nobel at around 3.00, NOL at 1,93 would be a tempting buy. Never to also forget diversification of the portfolio and minimize the risk that any individual stock could bring.

Further Outlook for Genting

Technically speaking,
-Bollinger band is narrowing, indicating a possible price movement at either side of the bollinger band.
-MACd turned bullish from a rebound.
-RSI turning up---bullish
-Most importantly, today's trade at $0.895-0.92 has initiated a breakout from its downtrend channel, and that is possibly the most bullish chart pattern. We will are likely to see Genting retest the $0.975 level in the next few trading sessions.

Other news to watch out for is the possibility of another fund raising exercise by the company. It is unsure in what form it would take place, if the resolution is successfully passed at the next AGM. In the event that it is another rights issue, then it could have a negative influence on the price through share dilution.

Outlook for Genting

-MACd bearish.
-RSI turning down before overbought region, volume declined to a month's low.
-$1.02 is a strong resistance level in the event of a bullish uptrend. It is the 61.8% Fibo Retracement level, which corresponds to a support turned resistance line
-Lower highs and lower lows---strong indication of a BEARISH DOWNTREND.
-Rapid downtrend after breaking 200MA in mid February. Tested 200D MA but failed and experience another pullback.
-Price closed on friday with a common doji and low volume showing a lacklustre interest and indecision on the future direction of the stock.
-Support at 0.90 and resistance at resistance belt of 0.99 to 1.04.

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